Hi guys,submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Why it mattersThe first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizingThe first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
Kelly CriterionIf you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How to use stop losses sensiblyStop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear levelWhere you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.
If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part IIEDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Coming up in part IIISqueezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releasesThe majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.
A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.
Data surprise indexThe other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.
Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.
Using recent events to predict future reactionsThe market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?
2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.
Buy the rumour, sell the factA final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.
Trimming or taking off positionsOne thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.
The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.
Two kinds of reversalsFairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.
Logical reversalsSometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.
Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.
Some key releasesAs we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.
Interest rates decisionsThese can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event
Non farm payrollsThese are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.
SurveysThere are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.
GDPGross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.
InflationCountries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.
Industrial dataThings like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.
CommentsOften there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
IntroductionKnowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.
Why use an economic calendarThe economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.
Reading the economic calendar
Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.
Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.
Event importanceHow do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.
Knowing what's priced inNext to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events
This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.
An example of pricing inFor example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?
On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
SurveysIt can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting
Interest rates decisionsWe know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.
See the link for a demo
This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.
Second order thinkingYou have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.
Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.
Coming up in part IINow that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
There is mostly stuff for back-end. When there is some sort of overload of back-end the game doesn't feel well - you can't even exit the raid and all sorts of bullcrap is happening. So we added more logs, more debugging info and many little techincal bits and pieces.- BSG team had a brief excercise in fast patch deploy and will strive to be faster in the future
We wrote it's gonna be 3 hours, but in fact it was 1,5 hours. So we want to be faster in that regard. Some people think the game is being patched magically by itself. There are times when we do something and it takes a long time. One time we were patching for about 6 hours, it's was very long. So we'll try to train ourself to deploy faster.- Nikita is slowly getting mad in quarantine, so he wears a plate carrier all day long to lose some weight.
I am already recieving messages with potential exploits that people can try to use. See, here's the deal! We are making a game, all we want to do is to make the game. We don't frickin' need to "close the holes", fight with cheaters and so on. We are wasting a ton of time on this. Sure, you can say "UgH, tHeSe ArE mOdErN oNlInE gAmEs, ThEy MuSt HaVe PrOtEcTiOn FrOm ChEaTeRs" and you'll be right. But not to the point of allotting to it a third of all working time or even more.- Pre-wipe events are going to be announced right before the wipe.
Instead of making a functional system we must empirically and practically seek out all exploits by ourselves and with the help of the players and patch them. And we still won't patch them all. But you know what would happen when someone will find the exploit? They are going to blame us and say that we are lazy pieces of shit, that we do nothing.
In fact, right now we are delaying 12.6 because we are closing potential exploits in the new system. (Update regarding the delay at the end of the translation)
We are working with BattleEye and making our own little subsystems that are designed to insure BattleEye is working properly. Right now everything that I recieve from acqueintances regarding cheaters, like "check this guy and that guy and those", I send to BattleEye and they say "Oh, they are already banned" or "They are in the banwave list". And it's very often that people ask to check those who are either already banned or in the little incoming banwave.- BSG is working on traffic encryption
BattleEye has its own internal system and strategy that they don't even talk to us in detail. There are times when the new cheat appears, but BattleEye doesn't act right away. It "marinates" the cheaters and collects the list of them to later ban them all in one banwave. Instant bans are implemented for some cheats, for others they are not implemented. BattleEye is mostly working by itself. We can send them videos with cheaters from the forums and information regarding them, that's it.
Some people think that we ban people when we watch videos. This is false. We send videos and Player IDs to BattleEye's special team and then they identify and analyze them.
Some cheats are using alternative environment to analyze the information. For those kinds of cheats traffic needs to be encrypted. We are working on it. Not many game developers practice it. So we've decided to do it and we've been working on it for the past month. It's a serious thing and it heavily affects CPU, so we are trying to optimise it so that the client and the decoder won't go nuts.- Most of the cheats on the Internet don't work
To those who are sceptical about anticheat's capabilty - you can search working hacks yourself. *everyone chuckles*- There's a person on Youtube that baits people into buying outdated hacks by buying channels and streaming old cheating footage. BSG is not happy about it
Oh, I'm not saying that you need to test them, just search for sites that say they are working.
95% of all sites that you'll see have hacks that don't work at all, even if they say otherwise.
There's a new thing that's been going on recently. There's a Youtube channel with a stream going on. Big red LIVE in the corner, 16k botted viewers, all that stuff. It's a prerecorded video. The guy buys channels with 500-600 subscribers and streams it on purpose. And he actually sells nothing, no cheats. He even wrote "Why are you striking my videos, why ban me? I am not doing something bad, I am actually helping you! I don't sell cheats, really. You get the money and the cheater is punished!" That's insane. We've already banned thousands of those videos. We have the legal department that quickly sends info to Youtube.- New economy is going to deal with resellers and add a new layer towards a greater future goal
Buddy, if you are watching this - please stop wasting your and everyone's time. The thing you are doing is not nice.
Right now everything is out of stock because of resellers. When reselling disappears there's going to be much more equipment for sale. If we take 10 players that actively play EFT and use flea market 8 of them buy the stock and immediately sell it, they don't even need it. But they know they'll gain extra 70 RUB from each bullet.- New iterations of economy are designed to slow down the accumulation of top tier loot
First, right now this situation is nonexistent. You'll need to craft the ammo, put it on flea market and it's much harder than it looks. With the added limit to buying per restock everything is going to be okay.
Second, we'll be looking into it all, how it's going to play out. If there's going to be some super deficit we'll try to regulate it.
Third, we are gradually moving on to the automatically regulated economy. I've been talking about it many times. Traders are going to be deciding what to do by themselves. If they see that the product is being sold out they'll increase the prices. If the product is being sold out regularly they'll decrease the amount you can buy per restock or even stop selling the product at all.
It's a vurtual in-game economy regulated by trader "pseudo people". Anything can happen. A number of items can disapper due to unforseen outocomes, events and the economy's unpredictability.
It's a new reality that you need to deal with. We don't want to create a refined system in which "these bullets cost this much, those cost that much, I know I'm going to buy that item for that much, so on and so on". It's not interesting. Especially regarding top-tier loot like armor and ammo. Our mission is to slow down and make it harder to obtain high level stuff. With every new wipe we are trying to make in-game cycle more organic and smooth.- 12.6 is going to be a special patch that will change how the game is played
12.6 is very important and not like the past ones. There is a bunch of new systems implemented like overweight, fatigue, trading of crafted and found in raid items. And it's a clear representation of your work. A player would be able to craft items in the hideout and contribute to the system. A real supplier and not just a reseller.- Nikita dislikes people who try to get rich in a short amount of time after wipe.
The economical system is pretty balanced, but because of certain people that are used to playing EFT differently and gaining advantage by using legit and prohibited methods, it's all coming apart. We don't want to see people racing each other for high value loot to become rich in a short amount of time. It's not right!- Nikita wants each player to have a certain role in the game and not become the jack of all trades.
You can say that it's life, that it happens. Damn, in our situation it's not the concept and gameplay that we wanted to implement. We want to make it harder, more complex. We want you, the player, to decide.
We don't want you to become the master of all skills, super trader, super killer, a know it all. When I was designing the game I had vision in mind that each player going through the game cycle would have his own place in it. Like "I haven't completed all quests but I've become a pro at certain skills". The limitations are designed to not let people become superheroes, like they are used to in all games. People must find their calling, just like in real life.- To add more to the new found in raid only flea market, BSG will reduce the amount of items traders sell.
Why and how from the point of playable realism there must exist a rule "I must be able to find every loot in raid" ?- Nikita is not in a hurry with adding new content, trying to implement it gradually
First, you need to level up the traders, to spend your time and resources on them.
Second, 75% of all loot is spawned in any way.
And here's the thing we'll be implementing. Almost all loot in 12.6 is going to be spawnable on locations and AI, it won't be sold. There are going to be new gear elements that will spawn on scavs, raiders and guards.
We are trying to "smear" added content. There are lots of planned top tier armor, but from time to time I just add a new rig, new backpack. For example, there is going to be a backpack that has about the same amount of slots as Berkut, but it looks cooler in black camo. It looks cool, but you can't buy it, just find on a scav.- New AI-driven UN soldiers are planned for the future
"Was Med Pack added to the game for shits and giggles?"- Crafting system is going to be redesigned to allow more crafting recipes
"YES... But really, why was it implemented. Some time in the future we'll add AI UN squads that would have machine gunners, medics, something like that. And these backpacks are going to spawn on those medics."
Everything is planned out. Most of the top tier ammo can be crafted already. And we'll add even more ways. Why are we not adding it now? To be honest, we want to redesign it all because there's simply too many crafting recipes. We need to make a new slick interface. We'll add more variants of crafting to ammo.- New loot spawns and redone old spawns. Dynamic loot is done, but will be added in the future.
We need to rebalance loot, that's what we are doing right now. In 12.6 there are going to be new loot spawns, old spawns are going to be redone. And we have lots of task regarding dynamic distribution of loot. It's done, but why it wasn't added in this patch... we had no time, that's all! It would probably be added in 12.7 or 12.8.- Nvidia Freestyle is going to be prohibited.
"Some players are using old Nvidia Freestyle because it's less FPS-hungry than new PostFX. But we all know that Freestyle gives an unfair advantage. What is BSG's position on those people and the usage of Freestyle?"- Test servers with Unity 2019 and C++ engine builds are planned.
"Our position is simple - we'll prohibit it with BattleEye. Just like we prohibited Reshade.
To be honest, we have done the techical servers already. And we have the need to use them. We are planning to release a special build of the game on Unity 2019. It's going to be the same game, but on another engine. If you want to try it out you'll need to actively submit tickets with bugs, not just play the game. Also we need people that play alot and know alot about the game, so they would spot inaccuracies right away. Also the C++ engine build is planned for testing.- Maps with just Scav and PMC extracts would be added when all maps are done
"I've tried hundreds of times to exit at the scav-pmc exfil, but only managed it once."- Karma system for PMCs and Scavs is written down, but will be implemented when almost all bosses are added.
"Ok, I get it. But imagine that EVERY exfil is going to need both a scav and a PMC"
"Oh, then the question is when it's going to be implemented?"
"I would say after all maps are done."
The karma system for Scavs is planned. Moreover, we want to make DLC in the future about scav's life. In it you're going to be able to play as a boss, so on and so on. And karma is very tightly knit around playing as a boss. A player Scav can kill the boss and leave. In this instance the karma is going to affect the player very heavily - from increased cooldown to your presence already known to the boss when you enter his area.- Arena mode about fighting a group of bosses is planned
Karma system is written down. But we don't implement it yet because we first need to add not all, but about 80% of the bosses to locations.
Bosses are very cool. It's going to be very fun gunning them in Arena. There's going to be a mode in which you'll fight with a group of bosses. With each new boss we are trying to add new AI, new behaviour. And it's going to be interesting how those AI's interact with each other.- New boss Sanitar on Shoreline.
Right now we are making the Sanitar (UAP, Paramedic, Aidman) who's going to appear in 12.7. His behavior is ill, to say. He aids people, makes stashes, hides items. He's interesting!- Voicelines for Scavs planned, not just current muttering
For Scavs we have everything recorded just like for PMCs except for specific situations. So yeah, it's planned.- First addition of Steam Audio will be in 12.6
Sound! When is the sound going to be redone!?- Bosses will have their own voicelines
The first iteration of the new sound is going to be implemented in 12.6.
Bosses' voices are being recorded. We already have the voice of Reshala.- Someone wants to voice a character? Write to BSG and nominate that person!
If you want a certain famous guy to voice someone - post it on Twitter, add hashtags, write to us. Make some noise. In short, if the person wants it, I am all for it. I don't want to pay a lot of money and get inexpressive, protocol work. I want the man to really desire it.- PostFX presets maybe coming out
If you have ideas - write to us on Twitter. Our PR guy is going to look through them and send them to the team
"Are there going to be presets for PostFX?"- Presets for flea market? Nikita is gonna think about it.
"I've seen a bunch of requests for presets, even for certain locations. I don't know, I think it's too much. But I'll think about it.
"Can we get presets for flea market filters?"- PostFX also working in the menu is planned
"I'll write it down"
It can be done so PostFX will work in the menu, it's planned. It's just it's going to be harder to implement.- War belts are planned to be added after plate carriers and rigs are remade.
"When are War belts are going to be added in the game? And would it be possible to add them before the plates system?- Chest rig customization would allow to display the contents of the pouches.
"I personally don't like war belts. Just because I'm not comfortable wearing them, that's all. It's just me, I'm a damn well-fed tactical. The more I carry, the worse I feel. I can't jump from trench to trench like a mongoose.
In short - war belts are planned. But after the remake of plate carriers, customization of chest rigs and so on.
We almost confirmed the design of chest rigs' customization. It's a serious task. It's going to be done before patch 13.0. We'll be doing for a long time, 3 or 4 patches. It's a complex system with a full-fleged interface. There are lots of questions about optimizing it all, so you won't need to render millions of pouches, bake them. And we also want to make so that the contents of the pouches would be visible, but there are many subtleties. Pouches are different, mags are different. Long, short, thick, thin. We'll need to code a system that automatically scales and moves it all. Clipping will be present for sure, but we'll try to minimize it. It's one of my most awaited features.- Decorative elements for chest rigs.
There are going to be decorative elements for rigs. Like this spring hook *grabs a spring hook on the plate carrier he is wearing*. You'll be able to buy lots of them and cover your torso with them.- BSG will not introduce quests to increase pockets slot count.
AND YOU'LL GET WHAT? CHAINMAIL!
"There were suggestions about adding more slots to pockets for completing special tasks, like kill each boss 100 times and get double the amount of slots for pockets"- New clothes for PMCs and Scavs in 12.6
"I heard that. But here's the deal, then it's going to be meta. Everybody is going to be using one pair of pants, one jacket. And we don't have many of them."
We can add all sorts of clothes to Scavs. We can add something like... smear Vaseline on yourelf 8000 times and get workpants with rubber boots for PMC! You'll be running around in a plate carrier and rubber boots, yeah.- UN troops will make it harder for you to traverse the map.
In 12.6 we'll add new clothes to both USEC and BEAR and one jacket for Scav.
UN troops are going to be controlling and dividing the map so you won't be able to go around freely. And they'll have features tied to working with Peacekeeper.- Since the start of EFT bugtracking program there has been over 13k collected tickets.
Y'know how many tasks we have? Since the start of bugtracking program we've accumulated... let's see what's the number of the most recent ticket... 13049! It's a shitload!- There is going to be a guide on how to properly write a bugreport
In Contract Wars we waited 2,5 years to get to 1000th ticket! Bonkers, man.
"You said that there are only 10-20% of decent bugreports, everything else is garbage. Is there going to be a guide how to write a good report?"- Nikita is adamant about adding VOIP to EFT. But they'll be testing it anyway.
"Okay, I hope the support team is watching the podcast. Please tell them to make an article on how to properly write bugreports so you'll become a tester on TTS"
VOIP was planned a long time ago, it was a must have in the game. But I've watched a bunch of new multiplayer games like Squad and so on. You'd think they are cool tacticool guys, but even then... huuuh...- Player report system is planned
There is certainly going to be a guy that would turn on a loud gay porn and it would annoy other players. We'll be making and testing VOIP anyway. To combat such abusers maybe we'll implement report system.
"Regarding the report system - is it going to be like in PUBG that you can report a suspicious player?"- Player reports will not get people banned right away
"Yeah, it's a system that's planned to be implemented in a near future. You can report a player for suspicious activity, potential cheats, inappropriate nickname and also you can report a lagging server. The last one will be useful for us.
Don't even think that people are going to be banned with reports, it's not going to be that dumb. Dude gets flooded with reports and gets banned, nothing like that. It's going to be a secondary system. If the player has an inappropriate nickname first he is forced to change it and after that he gets banned if he does it again.- Secure container changes not in 12.6. Maybe will be tested in pre-wipe.
So here's a situation - let's say there is a super private cheat that costs 80k a year, no one knows anything. From that there's lots of data, lots of reports on that guy. Then we track him - here he has strange speed, there he gets too many headshots. And all of that together gives us a reason to act. Not on that single guy, but the whole cheat. We detect by analyzing the client and server data and say that this guy is a cheater and BattleEye then does everything to get hardware proof that this guy indeed is using a cheat."
I had an idea about not allowing to store trading items in the secure container in 12.6. But sensing how someone would explode if it was added, I decided not to. Maybe it will be added to test it during pre-wipe.- Compass is planned in 12.7-12.8
Compass is planned in 12.7-12.8.- New added land on Customs will be added in space inbetween Old gas station to Construction site
The patch of land from the Old Gas Station to Construciton site - that's how much is going to be added on Customs. With buildings, so on. They have detalisation that other maps don't, I asked the team to decrease it, so it won't stick out.- Shoreline in its first version was even more unoptimised than you might remember.
I've been optimizing Shoreline when it first came out and it's been a complete trash, honestly. The developer man simply copy-pasted 2 varieties of rooms on Resort. Slippers, hairbrushes, 6 toothbrushes in one cup, glasses, papers - about 350 objects all together. So he simply copy-pasted it all everywhere.- EFT book is done and may go live mid-May.
The wings on Resort are mirrored, right? So he makes one wing and just mirrors it. And it wasn't stored in folders, it was just a bunch of files together. And I've been deleting these damn slippers for a week to optimize Shoreline. And then I was thinking that I've optimized it - was 15 FPS and became 17 FPS. Later they've done lots of other things to Resort.
Wish you could see what the detalisation was on Reserve. And the Labs, oh the Labs! Y'know that area with mechanical robot arms? It was completely different! It had 3-layer assembled lab boxes. Everything was being deleted and redone.
Tarkov book is completed. Right now proofreading and redacting is happening. And about the series - I hope it's going to go live mid-May.- New wave of players was very hard on BSG. Overall they increased the amount of servers from 17 to 170.
The Twitch Drops were complete bonkers. Thank God online has smoothen out. Before there were peaks - people come from work and start playing in different time. Lots of peaks that have been freaking us out, often during the night. And I remember - right before the New Year we all sat down together to think. 40k online and we are dead, our back-end is dead. And after New Year 60k came. After a week it was 80k. Another week it was 120k. Then it was 140k. And it all came down to 170k-180k online.- The first batch of merch is complete, but it's delayed because the site is not released yet.
And all this time we've been monitoring and raising servers from the dead non-stop. In short, we had 17 servers and got 170 servers. And it sucked so much, we had to work without weekends and breaks. Admins and back-end staff were constantly blaming themselves and each other, I've been screaming all the time. It was not cool. And we were DDoS'd around New Year almost every day. DDoS were the ones that cost 15-20k dollars.
It's really hard to deal with such big online amount and the game of such size. And you can say "uGh, WhY dOn'T yOu JuSt BuY aMaZoN sErVeRs?" They cost a shitload, that's why! 1,4 million dollars a year, I couldn't believe my eyes. So we continued to modify the system by buying more servers, finding bugs and building fail-safe security, fool-proof and fault-proof.
Merch is delayed because of coronavirus. The main problem is the site, they don't have the time to build it, to test it and finally release it. The first batch is complete, I'm sure it will sell out like hot cakes.- Bug abusers and skill grinders will be fought. Bug abusers can be reported after the introduction of the report system.
"What's your opinion on system abusers that grind the skills and raise them in a short amount of time? And do you have any plans for them?"- Bug bounty and rewards for finding them may be implemented in the future
"I have a negative opinion. I don't like when people play the game not the way it was intended. I am really sorry for you, the honest people, that play it fair. And those abusers later say something like "Ah, Ya DiDn'T sEt ThE pRoTeCtIoN, sO iT mEaNs It'S aLl LeGiT". For that I can say this - go fuck yourself, dear sirs. We'll be fighting you.
If you are using the bugs - after the patch there is going to be a report function for bug abuse. And we'll be banning for that. So please don't do it, just report the bug.
I've been suggested a lot of times an advanced system about bug bounty and rewards. So yes, eventually we'll do it. But it needs extra resources.- Dead PMC items won't be counted as found in raid because people may launder them. And BSG knows if you try to do shady trading on empty servers.
"Why the items from the dead PMC won't be counted as found in raid?"- Introduction of Captcha in Flea market. There will be different triggers for it.
"I'll say it again - you'll be able to trade items and launder them. But you can say "Oh, make it so it only applies to people in party". But no, people find their ways. They enter empty servers at night, empty maps like night time Factory.
And you know, it's all being monitored. We've banned so many bots, so many scripters.
Flea market will have Captcha. And there are different conditions for it to trigger. You refresh too often - get the Captcha. Buying too much - get the Captcha. Selling two times for the price much higher - get the Captcha and a note in back-end that you are a shady guy.- BSG won't protect you from unfair trades, it's in player's interest to be careful when using Flea market. And in 12.6 dollars and euros will have different colors.
"What about protection from unfair trades like cheap items in exhange for Red Rebel?"- Nikita hopes that people would find their own role in the world of EFT and stick to it
"This part is tightly knit around new wipe and its new found in raid only rule.
First, the items will be put on flea market with more care and more thought. So people will be more considerate.
Second, everything must be done in stages. You can't do anything all at once. We have lots of bugfixes and features planned, so we do them in batches.
We have a bunch of quality of life improvements, like metrics, fool proofs. In 12.6 dollars and euros are going to be differently colored, people have been asking for it for a long time.
We don't have the need to do it. Players must be vigilant and careful. Flea market is a place where you can be fooled easily and you need to be careful. People want super tools like automatic buy, buy orders, and so on so that they can become a magnate while picking their nose.
You can become rich, you'll learn the ropes and that will be your shtick in the world of EFT."
My ideal image would be that people in EFT would eventually pick people in clans and battle groups by their skills. Not like "Ah, Vasili is a cool guy" or "Oh, this one has lots of moneys". Like this guy can pick locks, this one runs fast, that one trades well. I want it to be like that, so everyone would have their own role. And replayability would be huge.- System with 2 playable characters in different realms is planned - one is permanent and one can be wiped
We'll introduce a system with two characters - one in a permanent realm and one realm being wiped constantly. Second one is just like it's going right now and the permanent one is going to be when you'll finish EFT. You can finish EFT when everything will be done - quests, story, etc.- Mobile app's functionality will be limited. Nikita would like to develop API for flea market monitoring services.
Mobile app had been planned a long time ago. It's functions will be limited - you won't be able to trade or go to hideout. At least we want the player to be able to get the insured items, get the sold items or renew the offers in flea market, check the flea market, look up the in-game encyclopedia. It won't have the full functionality so you'll have the full system without needing to enter the game.- Nikita threatens sites with Real Money Trading and cheat ads with potential lawsuit and shutdown.
Veritas is the guy we want to develop the system. But right now we don't have the time to do it all. He says he can do it all by himself, but I know he can't.
There is a site for monitoring flea market. How they do it is not right. For those kinds of people we would like to develop API. Because those services would potentially cease to exist because of constant updating and constant Captcha.
If the site is cool, we'll contact you and give you the flea market data. I think it's even going to be public - prices, items on sale, etc. People would be able to make applications tied to that data and we won't be against it. What we are against is when the ads are involved on such sites. Especially the advertisement of RMT.
If I see these RMT ads one more time I'm gonna tell our lawyers and we'll shut you all down. I know you guys want to earn the money. You have Patreon, you have donations, ads, all that stuff. I am not against it. What I'm against is the advertisement of this bullshit. Some even advertise cheats. So please be careful about that. We can easily shut you down even for the simple icon usage. Don't be dumb, don't get yourself in trouble.- API is going to be released eventually.
NoFoodAfterMidnight is parsing the data, datamining it. It's not right, but I'm not against it. I understand that they all have the same reason - "give us API". It's not like we don't want it, we simply have more important stuff to do. I thought we'll release API by 12.7. API will be released eventually, but please don't hurry us, we have more important things to do than additional resources.- BSG is against people bringing up datamined stuff. Nikita asks for people to be more positive and not blame the team constantly.
Some nasty people datamine developer objects that generate a wave of unnecessary questions that we need to answer and react to. And sometimes we don't have time to answer them.- There were many events BSG wanted to visit, but due to coronavirus it was all cancelled.
Bugusers find another bug and make a video on Youtube right away. What are you even doing? They all try to justify it by saying that they bring light and attention to it. You can't believe how hard it is to work when you need to fix something in a hurry.
There are sane people that know it needs to be fixed, but eventually. But some just start to blame us, call us dumbasses. It's unpleasant to hear. Sometimes you start to think why are we even doing it, who are we making the game for. It's hard. We have 100 people in staff. I can't just make a call-out for people to start working in 9 PM on Friday. I can't call and say "Sergey, what are you doing? Grilling? Drop what you are doing and go fix the shit!" But even that happens sometimes. When we were balancing back-end we had to get people from vacations. It's serious and people can't see what's hidden behind all this deal, how hard it is. People burn out, people quit because they can't endure it. And I personally feel bad about it. I wanted everything to be good, but the man quit. The man quits with pent up negativity, but I want others to feel positive, to know that they work in the best company in the world. Working tasks are okay, but when someone from outside starts to get on your nerves and throw unnecessary info at you, impose unnecessary actions at you it really sucks.
Someone might say "Why do you complain? You get the money for it!" I won't even leave comments to that.
People that want to stand up to the game, to protect it - please say something. Positive comments are much stronger than negative ones. I don't mean that you should be a fanboy. We make mistakes, we say bullshit. But we never thought and wanted to lie to someone and make money from them. You just want to make everything right. We are not the legendary studio that makes everything right, but we strive to become better.
The past year has been by far the most positive and productive ever. If not for the coronavirus and not for the cancellation of the events we wanted to visit, it would be even more amazing. But there are many things to come, it's not all lost.- First iteration of skill redesign is complete
"Is there any infomation regarding skills redesign?"- Underbarrel launchers are going to be added after BSG adds hand grenade launchers
"First iteration is complete. A part of skills will be redone - how they are leveled, bugs associated with them"
"When the new underbarrel launcher are going to be added in the game?"- VSS ammo nerf in 12.6
"First we plan to add hand grenade launchers. After that we'll add underbarrel launchers."
"Is there going to be a nerf to VSS?"- EFT release date unclear, will be announced after the completion of key features.
"There's been a work done to it in 12.6. I think it's about ammo damage."
"Nikita, you said that in May you may announce the date of release. Are you going to do it?"EDIT: Update on 12.6 being delayed - Pestily checked with Nikita directly and is saying that 12.6 is not delayed. But in my defence I can say that Nikita did indeed say that 12.6 is beying delayed right now. You can check it yourself, even if you don't speak Russian. Open the podcast at 19:33 mark and turn on auto-translated subtitles. It is a bit scuffed, but Nikita says what he says - "А по факту мы сейчас 12.6 задерживаем из-за того, что закрываем потенциально возможные дыры как можно эксплоитить функционал".
"I thought in that time I'll know for sure. But I can't say it right now. Because right now there are many things in EFT that need to be done. These are Streets of Tarkov, chest rig customization and story quests. These 3 features need to be complete before we announce the release date.
From Volume cluster 2 started nice move up... After from Volume cluster 1 continued another pushing market up... So for that reason i want trade long trade... Volume cluster 1 id done.. There was nice long reaction... So for now is active just Volume cluster 1 around near price level 124.760.. Where is located my support level... Happy trading Dale Charts, forecasts and trading ideas from trader GekkoFX. Get unique market insights from the largest community of active traders and investors. Therefore, by trading at the edges of the range the trader is relying on the price turning successfully in their favor. By trading the central area, you can reduce the risks of turns at the edges of the range. Trading method for ranges. In most situations, the price movements in a range deviate around a center line. Margin trading in the forex market is the process of making a good faith deposit with a broker in order to open and maintain positions in one or more currencies. Margin is not a cost or a fee, but ... Enhance your trading knowledge with these specially produced videos covering all the key trading areas Multiple PROVEN Methods Not one but three core methods can be traded on their own or combined in order to create the ultimate trading method (which we call “The Piptastic 24/5 Method”). .
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A Teen Trader shows how to properly draw Support and Resistance zones for trading and instrument. This allows for the most optimal entries and exits while tr... forex trading, forex trading for beginners, forex trading strategies that work, forex gemini code, forex trading documentary, forex scalping, forex trader, forex trading system secrets, forex ... Aspects covered in the review include evaluating how price action has moved recently on multiple Forex markets as well as highlighting potential trading areas, management point areas and target ... In this video I cover how to draw rectangle areas in MT4. Areas that can be used as trading areas in the market. In the video I show a demonstration of drawi... How to find supply and demand zones forex Supply and Demand zones do offer a great insights into the structure of any market. If you have an idea of how to t...